The upcoming Presidential election might have you wondering about the future and what it could mean for the housing market. It’s natural to feel uncertain during such times, especially if you’re considering buying or selling a home. The good news? Historically, Presidential elections have had only a minor, temporary impact on the housing market. Let’s dive into the data to better understand how home sales, prices, and mortgage rates have behaved in previous election cycles. This will help you make an informed decision without unnecessary worry.
Election Home Sales: A Brief Slowdown, Then a Rebound
It’s common to see a slight slowdown in home sales in the month leading up to a Presidential election, from October to November. Some buyers and sellers may choose to wait and see how the election pans out before making their final decisions. However, this slowdown is typically small and short-lived.
Post-Election Recovery
Historically, home sales tend to bounce back quickly after the election, often rising the following year. Data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) indicates that after 9 out of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales increased the year after the election. This pattern has remained consistent since the early 1990s.
Home Prices: Stability Over Election Cycles
Another common concern is whether home prices drop during election years. The answer is: not typically. According to Ryan Lundquist, a residential appraiser and housing analyst, “An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.” This means that if home prices are already trending upwards, an election year isn’t likely to change that course.
What the Data Shows
Home prices generally rise over time, regardless of the election cycle. The latest data from NAR shows that after 7 out of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices increased in the following year. The one exception was from 2008 to 2009, a period marked by the height of the housing market crash, which was far from a typical year.
Today’s market, however, is much more resilient. Even though prices are moderating nationally, they’re not in a decline, which bodes well for both buyers and sellers.
Mortgage Rates: A Favorable Trend
Mortgage rates are another factor that potential homebuyers watch closely during election years, as they directly impact monthly payments for financed homes. Looking back at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows that mortgage rates decreased from July to November in 8 of those years.
Current Trends and Forecasts
This year, we’ve already started to see a similar trend. Many experts forecast that mortgage rates will ease slightly throughout the rest of 2024. If this prediction holds true, it will align with the historical trend of declining rates in election years, which could be great news for buyers looking to maximize their purchasing power.
What This Means for You
So, what does all this mean for homebuyers and sellers? The key takeaway is that while Presidential elections can have some impact on the housing market, these effects are usually minimal. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, puts it succinctly: “Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.” For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t dramatically alter their plans.
Conclusion: Don’t Wait to Make Your Move
While it’s normal to feel a bit anxious during an election year, the historical data shows that the housing market remains robust and resilient. There’s no need to delay your plans. If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, now is still a good time to do so.
Ready to make your move? Contact Sell For 1 Percent at 614-451-6616. We’re full-service realtors offering exceptional service for just 1 percent commission, saving you thousands of dollars. Let’s navigate the market together!
