The Fed’s ONLY Trigger for Lower Rates

The Sell for 1 Percent team breaks down the July 1st market, where Columbus-area inventory has climbed to 5,400 listings while conventional mortgage rates hold in the mid-sixes. Rich Sircone offers a take from his 30 years in banking—the Fed only takes significant action to lower rates when the stock market takes a major hit—meaning relief isn’t likely while Wall Street is thriving. For local homebuyers trying to move before school starts, this means the pressure is on, as a typical 30-day close requires getting under contract by mid-July to make that August move-in date.

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Full Transcript

Hey there, everyone. Jaime with Sell for 1 Percent Realtors. It is July 1st, 2026, and we are back again for another week of mortgage and real estate info here and updates mostly for the Ohio market, joined, as usual, by the gang.

Dave, Head Broker, Jaysen Barlow, and Rich Cercone at Highlands Mortgage. Want to get into it here and see what kind of updates we have for those looking to buy or sell their homes. Rich, what are you seeing on the mortgage side? Well, we’re seeing sweltering temperatures here on July 1st.

I can’t believe it’s July 1st, by the way. I always feel like when we hit 4th of July, that, you know, well, like, until now, the summer’s building up, and when you hit 4th of July, it’s all downhill, and, you know, we’re headed towards fall and winter. It’s like a passage of time.

It’s like the continental divide or something, but here we are, 4th of July in a couple days. June, was it June 20-something is the official start of summer. June 21, yeah.

Yeah, so there you go. Now you’re July 4th, halfway through the year. It is crazy.

Yeah, but in terms of interest rates, they’re hot too. The 10-year treasury is higher by 10 or 15 points than it was last week when we talked, and, you know, I was thinking about what to say to the folks this morning, and I would say this, that in almost 30 years of mortgage banking, as I look back, the only time the Fed really takes significant action, to get the markets to lower interest rates by easing monetary policy, you know, infusing liquidity into the system, the only time that they ever do anything that significantly affects mortgage rates is when, you ready for this, the stock market takes a big hit. When you see the stock market get beat up, and you think about the 2008-2009 crash, the Fed rushed in and saved the day.

The 2001 dot-com bubble, the Fed rushed in. COVID, the Fed rushed in and backed up the dump truck and dumped a bunch of money into the American economy. And as long as we see this stock market going up, up, up, the only thing I feel really matters to the powers that be is the Wall Street.

And Wall Street is doing just fine right now, and Main Street can deal with it. And that’s kind of where we are. And we’re in the mid-sixes, maybe 6.6, maybe 6.3.

Those are the conventional rates, roughly speaking. And we’ve been there for a while, and I don’t really see any Fed action until the stock market takes a big hit. That’s my general take on how this whole thing will play out and when we will see lower rates.

So you’ll know, Dave, you always look at the gas pump, whether gas price is high or low, look at the stock market. You see the stock market taking 10% hit. And remember when the California bank back in 2019 went down, and the stocks plummeted, the Fed came in and dumped a bunch of money.

They always prop the stock market up. Whether they will say that or not, that’s what I feel. Well, we’ve talked about that in the past, that generally when the stock market’s doing well, you see money being pulled out of the bond market, which is what controls the mortgage-backed securities.

And they’re putting their money into the stock market because they’re getting 6, 7, 8% return on their money versus the mortgage bonds right now are 4, 3, 4, 4. And so you can double your money in the stock market. And then as soon as you see the stock market start to stumble, then people are pulling their money out of the stock market and putting it back into bonds because bonds are a safe haven.

And then you see bonds start to dwindle down because you have more supply, more money coming into the bond market. And so, yeah, there is this ebb and flow. And I’ve seen the same thing.

I’m not quite 30 years yet, Rich. I’m only 27. But you kind of watch these ebbs and flows.

And yeah, I agree 110%. Yeah. Rich is talking about the Fed intervening, not the ebbs and flows of money moving from bonds to stocks.

Rich is talking a conspiracy theory. No, no conspiracy here. Not really a conspiracy theory.

It’s just we take care about this. The last time that that happened, when the bonds came down, it didn’t have the same correlation. We talked about that.

I forget now when that was. But we’ll see. You’re the conspiracy theorist.

I think that the Fed has a third mandate. They’re known as having the dual mandate, but the third mandate is save the banks. If this was a true free market, it wouldn’t be- Too big to fail.

Yeah, exactly. Now, in the listing side of things, we’re at 5,400 listings, so inventory continues to climb. Pending home sales still up over the last two years, but over the last two, three weeks, they’re down compared to where they were.

You have these seasonal trends, like this Fourth of July weekend is typically a slow weekend for showings. Now, once you get past Fourth of July, there’s a nice surge. There’s normally more action in the beginning of July than there was in the middle end of June.

If that trend holds true, we’ll see these pending home sales spike back up the next two, three weeks, and then we’ll finish summer out pretty strong here. Good time, if you’re on the market, to get ahead of the curve, get positioned for July 6th, 7th, 8th, to be in the right price point, and make your push to get it sold. Why we typically see that is, and I’ll hand it to Jaime here, home buyers, Jaime looks like he’s in a dungeon and half awake.

Look down, you freaked me out. The home buyers typically make their push before school starts, and so this is where the majority of buyers are going to make their push here in July. Jaime Ronski, good morning, sir.

Let’s just clarify that real quick. Why is the push here up to the middle of July with buyers? I just stated because they’re trying to get into the schools before the schools start. Right, but you failed to mention the reason is because our banker friend, Mr.

Sirco, now he’s much better, because he can get your deal done in about two to three weeks. But the typical mortgage takes about 30 days for the paperwork to move through the system. And so if school starts August 15th, you got to back that up 30 days to July 15th to get your mortgage done before school starts, and that’s why we see that push.

The other thing, too, and check with your individual school districts as the buyers. I’ve had some clients that just need a purchase contract, and so as long as they have the contract, they’ll let them start school there. So all kinds of nuances for you buyers to figure out, which is why Jaime gets to deal with the buyers.

You know, that wouldn’t be a bad thing for us to maybe check on to some of the bigger school districts like Olentangy or Southwestern or Hilliard, Dublin. Check with those and see what their policies are, because I think they all have their own little nuances, but I think you’re right. If you have a purchase contract, they will allow you, but I think some people get a purchase contract, get their kid into school, cancel the contract, and their kid’s still in the school, you know? Yeah, that’s the real move to make right there.

Yeah, yeah. So and I think school systems are kind of, they’re a little more cognizant of that kind of stuff. So anyways, Jay Marinski, what are your buyers saying? Yeah, I mean, I don’t have too crazy of a buyer update than it has been the past few weeks.

Buyers are still, they have a lot of inventory to pick from, and so as we’ve kind of stated the past few weeks here, buyers want a house that’s complete. They want a move-in ready house. If they’re getting their kid into that school district, they want to just move into the house and start living.

That means updated, you know, kitchens, updated bathrooms, and with the inventory that’s out there, they’re able to have options and not rush into something. A few years ago, it was, you know, beating over somebody else’s head to try to get an offer accepted. And nowadays, it’s, you know, the ones that are priced right and are in really good condition, move-in ready, do seem to still have competition.

Do seem to still get multiple offers and, you know, having people competing to get them. But if your home needs a little work, needs a little updating, that is not always the case. Average days on market, Jay, did you go over the average days on market were about three to six weeks still? I did not go over that, but yeah, median days, the average is like 70, but the median is 35.

And then depending on the price point, some are going three weeks, some are going four or five, just depends on location and price. But things are humming. You throw out the highs and the lows, things are humming.

Right, and so just as a buyer, if you’re looking, you know, in certain, you know, districts, most school districts here in Columbus, Franklin County, and the house is ready to be moved into, you’re going to have some competition. If the house needs a little bit of work, you have an opportunity to think about it and get a good deal. And those are the ones I like.

So that’s essentially our buyer update. If you’re looking to buy, now’s a decent time to get a good deal on something that, you know, you plan to be in for five, 10 years. I think I’m seeing the same thing.

Sorry, go ahead. I was just going to dovetail into that real quick, Jaime. It’s tradition like none other when Dave freezes.

Yeah, I restarted my computer and everything here this morning. So fortunately, I record on my computer, so I’m not frozen on my computer. I’m just frozen through the internet connection or something.

But to dovetail back into Jaime, I just had a conversation with a seller in Powell yesterday. The house is in pretty good shape. It’s got a few things, and they’re like, yeah, the buyer’s just going to come in and take care of that anyways.

It’s like in today’s world, what we’re seeing is 90% of buyers, they just want that house that they can move into, you know, like a model home. Just bring their furniture and start living. You know, they don’t want to do work.

I mean, it’s amazing. And the seller was about my age, and he was like, yeah, I don’t understand that. And I said, well, I think a lot of it has to do with you and I, Rich.

I’m not downplaying you, Jay, or Jaime, but we have skills. The one guy was a woodworker. And so, you know, you take care of things.

It seems like the younger population that, you know, you don’t want to do work. You got to be old to have skills. Well, it’s a different generation, you know.

I’m just glad I can hear you. You got to be young to be able to use the internet, apparently. I don’t know what’s going on on the backside.

But anyways, that was, you know, I don’t know how else to explain it. What do you think about that, Rich? Do you agree? Do you think that being old makes you handy? Well, you haven’t seen my skills lately. I might be the one who pucks that trend, although I have learned a few things in my old age.

I can work my way around a broken toilet and a few things like that. But, you know, I have seen buyers, you know, especially the younger buyers. They tend to be wrapped up in their career and they don’t want to mess around with having to do anything to a house.

But I’ve seen others. I think it’s anecdotal because I think there’s some that want to roll their sleeves up and dig in. And do a bunch of stuff to the house.

But I think if you ask me to generalize, I would say that, yeah, they want a moved in ready house. They don’t want to be coming in and doing any handiwork. And I think a big key to it on the buy side is you’re spending a ton of money.

You know, at the sales prices that we’re at and the interest rates that we’re at to get into a house. You’re putting a bunch of money into it. And so if you’re going to be putting a bunch of money into it, you’re going to want something that’s, you know, not going to be more of a quote unquote money pit.

Right. And that’s what your inspections are for. So.

I think the expectation is that the buyers say, OK, now, you know, housing prices have gone up. I don’t I don’t want to put a percentage on it, but people have made hundreds of thousands of dollars of equity on a home they’ve owned 10 years. And so I think rightly so.

The buyers expect, hey, you know, you’ve got this house that has appreciated by two, three hundred thousand dollars over the last 10 years. You know, fix it up a little bit, get it ready to go here. And I don’t think that’s an unreasonable expectation.

People who just live in a house don’t do anything and they expect top dollar. We’ve already talked about that. You’re not going to get that.

You’re not going to get the money that you made on that equity to get a handyman in there and fix the thing up to where it’s acceptable. I think that’s a reasonable expectation, really. Well, Jay, I like the way you do our outros.

Does anyone else have anything to add in here for this week’s market update? No, I think everything’s good. Short and sweet, heading into July 4th. Everybody have yourself a good 4th of July.

Enjoy the, it’s a short week. It’s not like last year was on Thursday. So you saw people leave in town on Wednesday.

Then they were taking Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. And then, you know, some were even taking Monday off. So you almost had a week’s vacation with it being on Saturday this year.

I think everything is shortened up a little bit. Although, Jay, you’re taking off on Sunday, correct? Yeah, I’m out of here. I’m gone.

I’m never coming back. Dad went to get milk and he never came home. I’m gone.

I can’t believe you’re going that state up north to spend money. That’s where I like to spend my money. Baby can only do..

You certainly know Woody Hayes, that’s for sure. The new baby. I’m young.

I have no skills. I have to go to the closest destination possible. Your skills are all on YouTube.

I don’t have any skills on YouTube. What are you talking about? Well, you just replaced a door handle or something on your dishwasher. And what did you do? Oh, that stuff.

Yeah, I do all kinds of stuff. That’s what I’m talking about. Even when, you know, during the foreclosure days, when, you know, prices weren’t so high and rates weren’t so high.

I mean, people still prefer moving ready. That’s always been a thing. And I have the same conversations you have with sellers where, oh, buyers are going to come in and do this and do that.

And it’s just like, you know, buyers buy with emotions. They don’t buy with spreadsheets. And nobody wants to coordinate flooring guys and painters.

And they, you know, they just would prefer moving ready. Even if logically they can get a better deal. And I’m the buyer agent where it’s like, hey, you know, this can be fixed.

That can be fixed. You can YouTube that. I mean, you do try and problem solve it.

But there is a big disconnect, I think, between sellers and buyers over, you know, that specifically. And the other thing is a lot of buyers, to Jaime’s point, you know, they’re spending all of their money on down payment and closing costs. And they, you know, some of these guys literally can’t spend money to, you know, do a $10,000 paint job.

Dave, would you get the AI out of here? Would you get the note taker out of here? You asleep at the wheel? What are you talking about? Oh, you’re a note taker. Who’s note taker is that? What is going on in this video? From Jaysen’s loom note taker to everyone. All right, guys, thank you for watching.

If you have questions, if you think buyers ought to be exactly mixing up your piece of crap house and giving you millions of dollars for it. Well, you might be from Dave’s generation. Leave a comment below.

Like and subscribe. And if you got the skills. Green flock wallpaper.

No one knows you’re talking about with flock wallpaper. If give Jaime a call, if you want to buy it, he’ll be happy to drive you around and show you houses. Avocado toilets.

There you go. He’ll even take you to lunch. I was just in a house yesterday.

Had a sunrise gold in one bathroom and avocado in the other bathroom. And we’re going to be able to get your top price. Those are classic.

Yep. And a buyer will fix that. No problem.

Asking price. 1.2 million, please. At least.

Yes, Mr. Seller. I’ll have that for you in three hours.

Sign here. This is, this is our life as a realtor. You know, I mean, Lloyd Wicklund used to say, press hard.

It’s copy paper. You remember the old NCR paper, Rich? I remember. Oh yeah.

I remember that. Press hard. Yep.

That was the best. It was, it was that like actually felt cool to do. Uh, paperwork of people today.

It’s like, click here. It’s very anticlimactic. It’s not as cool as it was back in the day.

Back with the yellow copy and the pink copy and tearing them off. That was always fun. Even before that, you had the, uh, big, uh, blue piece of ink paper in between the two pieces of paper.

And that always created how I used to pay with your charge card. Well, the NCR, no, the NCR was like a modern Marvel because you didn’t have that blue. When you went to tear that out, you always had blue on your fingers because it literally was like a ink covered piece of paper in between the two.

So that is something that only the most skilled watchers will even know what you’re talking about. Well, at least somebody has some skills. That’s right.

Happy 4th of July, everybody. Thanks for watching. And we’ll see you next week.